8:30 | Welcome by Marco Baggiolini,
Chancellor of the University of Lugano. |
8:40 | Foundations (CHAIR: Gert de Cooman).
- Renato Pelessoni, Paolo Vicig. Convex imprecise previsions: basic issues and applications.
- Kurt Weichselberger, Thomas Augustin. On the symbiosis of two concepts of conditional interval probability.
- Sebastian Maaß. Continuous linear representation of coherent lower previsions.
- Glenn Shafer, Peter Gillett, Richard Scherl. Subjective probability and lower and upper prevision:
a new understanding.
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10:00 | Coffee break. |
10:20 | IDM/Model-based inference (CHAIR: Alyson Wilson).
- Erik Quaeghebeur, Gert de Cooman. Game-theoretic learning using the imprecise Dirichlet model.
- Jean-Marc Bernard. Analysis of local or asymmetric dependencies in contingency tables
using the imprecise Dirichlet model.
- Marcus Hutter. Robust estimators under the imprecise Dirichlet model.
- Pablo Ignacio Fierens, Terrence Fine. Towards a chaotic probability model for
frequentist probability: the univariate case.
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11:40 | Posters. |
12:40 | Lunch. |
14:20 | (Reliability) applications (CHAIR: Alberto Bernardini).
- Lev Utkin. A second-order uncertainty model of independent random variables:
an example of the stress-strength reliability.
- Igor Kozine, Victor Krymsky. Reducing uncertainty by imprecise judgements on probability
distributions: application to system reliability.
- Gerd Peschl, H. F. Schweiger. Reliability analysis in geotechnics with finite elements -
comparison of probabilistic, stochastic and fuzzy set methods.
(Medical) applications (CHAIR: Joerg Stoye).
- Minh Ha Duong, Elisabeth Casman, M. Granger Morgan. Bounding analysis of lung
cancer risks using imprecise probabilities.
- Frank Coolen, Ke-Jian Yan. Comparing two groups of lifetime data.
- Andrea Capotorti. Relevance of qualitative constraints in diagnostic processes.
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16:20 | Coffee break.
Posters. |
17:30 | Free time + walk to funicular.
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18:45 | Meeting for evening tour.
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8:40 | Decision theory 1 (CHAIR: Charles Manski).
- Robert Nau. The shape of incomplete preferences.
- Mark Schervish, Teddy Seidenfeld, Joseph Kadane, Isaac Levi.
Extensions of expected utility theory and some limitations of pairwise comparisons.
- Jean-Yves Jaffray, Meglena Jeleva. How to deal with partially analyzed acts? A proposal.
- Erio Castagnoli, Fabio Maccheroni, Massimo Marinacci. Expected utility with multiple priors.
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10:00 | Coffee break. |
10:20 | Information (CHAIR: Michael Oberguggenberger).
- George J. Klir. An update on generalized information theory.
- David V. Budescu , Tzur Karelitz.
Inter-personal communication of precise and imprecise subjective probabilities.
Coherence.
- Veronica Biazzo, Angelo Gilio, Giuseppe Sanfilippo.
Some results on generalized coherence of conditional probability bounds.
- James M. Dickey. Convenient interactive computing for coherent imprecise prevision assessments.
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11:40 | Posters. |
12:40 | Lunch. |
14:20 | Belief functions/Random sets/Capacities/Possibility theory
(CHAIRS: Jim Hall & Alessandra Micheletti).
- Marco Cattaneo. Combining belief functions issued from dependent sources.
- Jirina Vejnarova. Design of iterative proportional fitting procedure for possibility distributions.
- Damjan Skulj. Products of capacities derived from additive measures.
- Elmar Kriegler, Hermann Held. Global mean temperature projections for the 21st century using random sets.
- Fabio Cuzzolin. Geometry of upper probabilities.
- Enrique Miranda, Inés Couso, Pedro Gil. Study of the probabilistic information of a random set.
- Anton Wallner. Bi-elastic neighbourhood models.
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16:40 | Coffee break.
Posters. |
17:40 | Patrick Suppes.
Application of nonmonotonic upper probabilities to quantum entanglement.
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18:40 | Free time.
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19:15 | Meeting for banquet
(banquet talk: - Terrence L. Fine. Theories of probability: some questions about foundations).
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8:40 | Representations/Independence (CHAIR: Thomas Lukasiewicz).
- Fabio Cozman. Computing lower expectations with Kuznetsov's independence condition.
- Serena Doria.
Independence with respect to upper and lower conditional probabilities assigned by Hausdorff outer and inner measures.
- Barbara Vantaggi. Graphical representation of asymmetric graphoid structures.
- Radim Jirousek. On approximating multidimensional probability distributions by compositional models.
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10:00 | Coffee break. |
10:20 | Graphs and computational aspects (CHAIR: Philippe Nivlet).
- Jose Rocha, Fabio Cozman. Inference in credal networks with branch-and-bound algorithms.
- Joaquín Abellán, Serafín Moral. Maximum of entropy in credal classification.
- Darryl Morrell, Wynn Stirling. An extended set-valued Kalman filter.
- Radu Lazar, Glen Meeden. Exploring imprecise probability assessments based on linear constraints.
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11:40 | Posters. |
12:40 | Lunch. |
14:20 | Fuzzy sets (CHAIR: Hongjun Yan).
- Andrew Bronevich. The maximal variance of fuzzy interval.
- Huguette Reynaerts, Michèle Vanmaele.
A sensitivity analysis for the pricing of European call options in a binary tree model.
Decision theory 2 (CHAIR: Aron Larsson).
- Gert de Cooman, Matthias Troffaes. Dynamic programming for discrete-time systems with uncertain gain.
- Lev Utkin, Thomas Augustin. Decision making with imprecise second-order probabilities.
- José Pablo Arias, Javier Hernández, Jacinto Martín, Alfonso Suarez-Llorens.
Bayesian robustness with quantile loss functions.
- Mats Danielson, Love Ekenberg, Jim Johansson, Aron Larsson. The DecideIT decision tool.
- Thomas Augustin.
On the suboptimality of the generalized Bayes rule and robust Bayesian procedures
from the decision theoretic point of view --- a cautionary note on updating imprecise priors.
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17:00 | Coffee break.
Posters. |
18:00 | Good bye. |